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Mitt Romney signed campaign pins for supporters at the Mississippi Valley Fairgrounds in Davenport, Iowa. More Photos ?
DES MOINES — Mitt Romney has grown so confident of his Iowa prospects that on Monday night he dropped all humble pretense and proclaimed, “We’re going to win this thing.” At the same time, Rick Santorum insisted that his momentum carried its own whiff of victory.
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The Iowa caucuses, the curious political ritual that will open yet another race for the White House on Tuesday, have a knack for turning second-place finishes into victories. And they are just as likely to produce losers — or deal surprises — as they are to coronate a clear-cut winner.
For all of the attention paid to the field of Republican presidential candidates on the final day of a frenzied burst of campaigning — it felt as if the weight of the Washington political and media establishment landed here on Monday — the race is only now beginning.
The polls have been recited as gospel, with Mr. Romney and Mr. Santorum joining Representative Ron Paul of Texas at the top of the pack. If those findings hold true, each of the three will rush to claim victory as the contest moves to New Hampshire.
The outcome of the Iowa caucuses will set the tone for the race after a yearlong prelude that has been off the charts in its unpredictability.
Remember when Sarah Palin’s bus tour prompted the television pundit class to announce with certainty that she would run?
Who, five months ago, would have predicted that Herman Cain was going to hold a lead in the polls before evaporating? Newt Gingrich was up, then down, then up again; now he is down again.
And Rick Santorum? Two weeks ago, he struggled to get a group of reluctant insurance company employees at a downtown Des Moines office building to stick with him as he spoke during their lunch break. The only warmth he received in the room was from the sweater vest that has come to define him. By Monday, his events were so jammed that a supporter fainted during an overcrowded campaign stop.
His campaign said it was now looking beyond Iowa to consolidate support and emerge as the viable conservative alternative to Mr. Romney, a position the party’s evangelical base has long been seeking to fill.
Four years ago, Mr. Paul was a political punch line. What kind of Republican would call for a speedy withdrawal from Afghanistan and for Pentagon cuts? Apparently the kind who attends caucuses in Iowa, according to polls that have shown Mr. Paul at or near the top of the field here.
So one would have to be a fool to go too far out on a limb to predict what happens on Tuesday and beyond with any certainty — or assume there are no consequences for getting it wrong. (Imagine that.) Yet there is a finite set of twists and turns that can determine whether Republicans move past their internal differences and confront President Obama quickly.
Here is a look at some of the possibilities for Tuesday evening as Republicans gather at the caucuses, a series of meetings in 1,774 precincts across Iowa where voters declare their preferred presidential candidate.
Second Chance in Iowa
Iowa was a gamble for Mitt Romney. And even if it does not pay off in a clear-cut victory, his advisers were already crowing that they were heading into the rest of the nominating contest in better shape than they had once expected. There are two chief reasons: Mr. Gingrich and Gov. Rick Perry of Texas, whose candidacies have been significantly wounded.
It is not as if there are no warning signs still on the horizon for Mr. Romney — many conservatives view him as a hold-your-nose front-runner — but his organization has always been built with a cushion for stumbles along the way. Even as he was crisscrossing Iowa in the final days of the caucus campaign, absentee ballots were landing in the mailboxes of his supporters in Florida, highlighting a depth of organization and planning that none of his rivals can match.
“We’re going to win this thing,” Mr. Romney told an overflowing crowd on Monday evening during one of his stops in a dawn-to-dusk day of Iowa campaigning.
If he wins the caucuses decisively, his most immediate challenge is avoiding overconfidence. The voters of New Hampshire, after all, have spent years elevating underdogs and dealing punishing lessons to offset the Iowa results. But Mr. Romney’s lead is so significant in New Hampshire, according to a long string of polls, that his rivals may be able to defeat him in the primary next Tuesday only if they consolidate their support.
This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:
Correction: January 2, 2012
An earlier version of this article misspelled the name of the Reising Sun Cafe in Polk City, Iowa.
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